Wednesday, 8 June 2022

Social Liberal Forum conference: UK and Europe: Offshore island or part of the main?

Many of the problems we face today in the UK such as labour shortages or the reduction in international trade, or political turmoil in Northern Ireland can be traced to Brexit. But the only political party that wants to exploit that is the SNP. Scotland after all voted to remain in the EU and this is a useful wedge issue for them, a justification for supporting Scottish independence from the UK so that they can then apply to rejoin the EU. There is after all no other way that Scotland can realistically expect to rejoin the EU as part of the UK. Many Liberals want to rejoin the EU as well. We were after all the most pro-Remain political party at the last general election, to such an extent that we probably went too far. Voters were not impressed when during the campaign we suggested that we would simply reject the Brexit referendum vote and not even bother with a second referendum. Not surprisingly all 4 Lib Dem seats that voted for Brexit were lost (for the record; Carshalton and Wallington, Brecon and Radnor, North Norfolk and Eastbourne), despite an overall increase in the national vote. That the Lib Dems won the North Shropshire by-election last year shows that voters have, to use a fashionable phrase these days, moved on. Ed Davey may well feel vindicated, a big call he made early on in his leadership was to downplay the idea that we should rejoin the EU as soon as possible. Although that might be a smart move, he has another problem, in common with Labour also under new leadership; nobody knows what they stand for or intend to do in government. The current 12% in the opinion polls shows slow steady growth from the 6% in 2020, but there are no wedge issues that jump out that would compel people to vote for the Lib Dems. It is a return to the "none of the above" vote, which is likely to be soft, although maintainable if Johnson remains Prime Minister. I am looking forward to the SLF conference (on the Saturday after the Tiverton by-election, 25th June in London) that will be looking at the theme "UK and Europe: Offshore island or part of the main?". It would be good to see old friends again for the first time since the Covid pandemic and I have plenty of questions I would like to ask. Should the Lib Dems become a rejoin party? If the UK were to apply to rejoin, would it be able to do so on the same terms as when we left? Those terms were in fact a remarkably good deal. Would we have to sign up to the single currency? Is that a good idea? When you consider how the single interest rate ruined the Greek economy there are reasons to think it might not be. There is also the question of where ideologically the EU is going. There are 2 ways to interpret the recent French elections. The Observer journalist William Keegan claimed that the result was much better than expected and we should cammpaign hard on opposing Brexit. Others have argued that the results saw Le Pen's vote increase by 9% from 5 years ago, and if she or someone like her increases the vote by another 9% in the next elections in 5 years, they will become president. Surely if that were to happen, it will be over for the EU, at least as a liberal institution? Even without her winning Macron is having to placate some of her illiberal beliefs. Then there is the electoral impact. Many of the most deprived communities in the UK are now represented by Tory MPs. The left is losing the non-graduate working class vote. For the Liberal Democrats they have been dealt a blow in the Brexit supporting South West where the only seat they won at the last general election was prosperous pro-Remain Bath. Cornwall, Devon and Somerset became Lib Dem free zones at the last 3 general elections. The Lib Dems could make a comeback with good local organisation and campaigning on local issues as the local election results spectaculary show in Somerset recently. But it has taken this long to get there, and noone is saying much about Brexit. A compromise that I think I could support would be for the UK to rejoin the Single Market and Customs Union. I would like to think this could resolve the problems in Northern Ireland. No doubt the Unionists would complain but how can they convincingly oppose what was previously the status quo? Taking such a stance will not give Ed Davey's leadership a high profile, that remains a big problem. But for a party in government it is a more realistic option. So there is a lot to talk about, I hope to see you at the SLF conference. For more details see

Thursday, 31 December 2015

The Lib Dems diversity problems - will they ever be solved?

Many years ago the black Democrat politician Jesse Jackson created what he called a Rainbow Coalition to support his bid for the Democratic nomination for president of the USA. This Coalition was intended to include all those who are oppressed by hostility to their identity, whether women, BAME, LGBT and other groups.
It is something all Liberals aspire to achieve and in theory should be able to achieve. Liberalism celebrates diversity does it not?
The lack of female, BAME and disabled MPs suggests otherwise, but for this blog I want to focus on religion.
People who are religious often look at the great moral issues of the world and find this draws them into politics. It is remarkable that if we take Christianity that as a religious faith it's set of moral values do not sit easily with any political ideology. Christians can be found in all political parties, and it is worth considering that many were founded by Christians based on their interpretation of their faith. Foremost amongst those was the Liberal party of course.
Everything seemed fine for many years, religious and secular members of the Liberal party and Liberal Democrats worked well together. Some were put off Christianity because it was used by Mrs Thatcher in particular to support her "Victorian Values" where women knew their place and homosexuality was not allowed. Generally Christians who joined the Liberal party and the Lib Dems did not support that interpretation of their faith and so there was no problem.
However there has over the past 20 years or so been a dramatic rise in the Humanist movement and parts of this movement has changed the conversation. Today there are humanists who support toleration and those who do not and both types are members of the Liberal Democrats. So if you are a Christian or a Muslim you are often made to feel unwelcome within the party. How can this be?
There is a new cadre of evangelical atheists who not only disagree with religion, they consider it beneath them. This critique of Richard Dawkin's autobiography by John Gray puts it well:
"If religion comes in many varieties, so too does atheism. Dawkins takes for granted that being an atheist goes with having liberal values (with the possible exception of tolerance). But as the Victorians well knew, there are many types of atheism, liberal and illiberal, and many versions of atheist ethics. Again, Dawkins imagines an atheist is bound to be an enemy of religion. But there is no necessary connection between atheism and hostility to religion, as some of the great Victorian unbelievers understood."
And so many followers of Richard Dawkins do believe in Liberal values and naturally would join the Liberal Democrats. But in one sense they are not liberal in that they are intolerant. Why is that? It is their insistence that anyone who believes in a religion can only believe in it literally, as Gray points out:
"Quite apart from the substance of the idea, there is no reason to suppose that the Genesis myth to which Dawkins refers was meant literally. Coarse and tendentious atheists of the Dawkins variety prefer to overlook the vast traditions of figurative and allegorical interpretations with which believers have read Scripture. Both Augustine and before him the Jewish philosopher Philo of Alexandria explicitly cautioned against literalism in interpreting the biblical creation story. Later, in the twelfth century, Maimonides took a similar view. It was only around the time of the Reformation that the idea that the story was a factual account of events became widely held. When he maintains that Darwin’s account of evolution displaced the biblical story, Dawkins is assuming that both are explanatory theories—one primitive and erroneous, the other more advanced and literally true. In treating religion as a set of factual propositions, Dawkins is mimicking Christianity at its most fundamentalist."
And so it is this insistence that the literal interpretations of religious texts are the only valid one which makes it easy to lampoon and ridicule religion. And with that comes a sense of intellectual superiority. Within a political party that believes in diversity, that celebrates that different people think differently, this attitude is counter productive and makes religious people feel unwelcome. As far as the Lib Dems are concerned, in some constituencies with a large Muslim population this could make them unelectable, and if we want more ethnic minorities in the party this will be another barrier stopping them from joining.
There are understandable concerns that many religious people are socially conservative and will not support policies such as gay marriage or LGBT rights in general. Often that is not so much to do with religion and more to do with people coming from societies - particularly authoritarian societies - where are serious debate on LGBT rights has not even started.
Those who have been on the receiving end of homophobia may feel unsafe in the presence of religious people joining the party. But in politics our aim is to change things for the better, not accept them as they are. Many Muslims and Christians support LGBT rights, and many more can be persuaded. It is not the job of the Liberal Democrats to turn religious people into atheists. Maybe Richard Dawkins can do that. And given that is not our job, what we do need to do is make the case for Liberalism and invite people of all varieties to join us and help us campaign for it. A campaign instead to exclude people will only make us a smaller party and less diverse.
The problem though is an ideological one. The believers of evangelical atheism also believe they are Liberals and in many respects they are. On policies outside of religion I often find myself in complete agreement with them. However if the problem with diversity is simply a disciplinary issue, or an organisational issue, that can be tackled. If it is an ideological division, then who gets to adjudicate, or do we somehow muddle along regardless - and not get anywhere?

The Lib Dem roller coaster continues

It is 5 years since my last blog post.
In that time there has never been a more challenging time to be a Lib Dem, apart from in the 1950s when the Liberal party almost died.
We can see from what the government is doing today that the Lib Dems did perform a useful role in Coalition in moderating the Tories. Even so, the reputation and the appeal of the Liberal Democrats has taken a battering. Some policies that should not have seen the light of day got through and the Lib Dems have a difficult legacy to deal with as they now hope to recover. The election of Tim Farron as a new leader has given a new hope to those of us on the left of the party, upon which he has only partially delivered.
His majority was small and his strategy all along has been to try and keep the party united and this probably accounts for his record so far. He was able to oppose the Tory welfare cuts with conviction and he has made tackling inequality - not just social mobility - a priority. How that fits in with austerity economics and what our take on it is remains to be seen. On the other hand he has supported Trident replacement and air strikes in Syria.
I think he was relishing outflanking Labour on the left, but the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour party has made that impossible. Jeremy Corbyn is on the hard left and they have their flaws as well. In the 32 years that Jeremy Corbyn was elected the MP for Islington North, he has often walked through the same voting lobbies as the Lib Dems, both in opposition to the Tories and Labour. There is more we agree on than we would both like to admit; on civil liberties, tackling global warming, opposing benefit cuts. Jeremy Corbyn has a laid back personality, very different from some of his hard left allies. The hard left have a culture of believing that anyone who opposes them on any issue should be treated with contempt. As the soft left Guardian journalist John Harris pointed out, they are not interested in listening to the electorate if they say things they do not want to hear.
For that reason a lot of the new recruits to Labour have joined the wrong party. Unfortunately because on the policies they are closer to Jeremey Corbyn than Tim Farron, that does not seem obvious. No doubt some will eject from Labour when they find out what it is really like, but it would have been better if they joined the Lib Dems in the first place. The Lib Dems have plenty of new members themselves and that is an opportunity they must capitalise on.
But what about the bigger picture? Global warming will continue it's deadly path. There is no end in sight in the so called war against terror. Will Assad be overthrown and will the Syrian state collapse in a similar fashion to Iraq in 2003? Will the government really find the money to replace Trident? Will Donald Trump or Ted Cruz become the next US president? How will the global economy fare as the Chinese economy falters? What if the British people vote to leave the EU? Will Greece leave the Euro currency, and will others follow? Will the far right prosper in Europe in the UK? How will Daesh be managing in Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebenon, Jordan, Egypt and will they attack Israel? And these are just the known unknowns.
Despite appearances the Tories are not invincible. They governed Canada for 10 years but they got defeated by the Liberals in Canada in 2015. Even so, politics is getting harder whoever is in power. Can the Lib Dems keep up with what is happening in the world today?

Friday, 31 December 2010

Osborne's spending cuts are seriously hurting the Lib Dems

Not long ago the Lib Dems triumphed in their successful campaign for fair treatment for the Gurkas. Then at the last general election we witnessed "Cleggmania" - which lasted briefly but was sufficient to bring in many new members to the party.
It all went wrong on May 6th. The general election result saw a net loss of seats for the Lib Dems, and then of course coalition with the Tories. A coalition with Labour was not an option once Labour decided to exclude the SNP. The Lib Dems need some good news stories, but with the possible exception of winning the AV referendum, it is hard to see where any will come from.
Some claim that this Coalition was a triumph, despite a dramatic drop in the opinion polls. After all, government is about making difficult decisions, you cannot continue to be all things to all people. In any case they argue, the Liberal Democrats are now delivering on many of their manifesto commitments.
However the problem was not so much what was in the manifesto, it was what was not included. Premature and radical cuts at a time of fragile growth threaten to throw the economy into reverse. Radical reforms of the NHS that have never before been debated with the Lib Dems and have not been tested by pilot projects may go horribly wrong. Radical changes to higher education finance - not just student fees but the marketisation of course funding will also have unpredictable results. The cuts in local government are devastating and the impact will not only be regressive, but runs counter to what the Lib Dems stand for in local government. The policy in supporting academies and free schools is against the policy of the Liberal Democrats and this was reconfirmed at the last conference by a 10 - 1 majority.
Of course in a Coalition you will not always get your way, but these are big hits. The concern is that Nick Clegg is not fighting our corner. This is important not only in relation to Lib Dem members and activists, but also to voters.
On the issue of Equality Nick Clegg has played down our commitment to reduce poverty and focussed instead on social mobility. His advisor Richard Reeves dismisses the research in The Spirit Level which shows that only countries with low levels of poverty also have high level of social mobility.
On localism Nick Clegg tells us that the Big Society also equals liberalism. It does not. The Big Society is a welcome advance by the Tory party compared to the centralising days on the 1980s, but the suspicion of local government is still there and without democratically elected bodies with the ability to raise funds locally, this is not good enough. Indeed policies like Free Schools and Academies are likely to benefit the middle classes more and work against any gains the pupil premium may bring to social mobility.
So the question is this; is the current state of affairs sustainable?
We hope the vote on AV will be won, but if not Nick Clegg could go in 2011.
If he remains he still has the reputation issue to resolve. His agenda setting speeches on Equality have not yet won him any popularity and it is hard to see how he can improve things for the Liberal Democrats. Many new party members are scheduled to renew from next March, and if they don't we could start to see a weakening of the party, combined with big losses in the forthcoming local elections.
Even if we win the AV referendum it remains the case that Nick Clegg has to find a way of recovering his reputation. The party cannot go into the next general election at less than 15%. Labour is facing up to a dreadful general election in 2010, but the problems for the Lib Dems look substantially worse than that.

Sunday, 23 May 2010

Has Vince Cable been sidelined? Will there be a double dip recession?

There is no doubt that Vince Cable has a very important job to do. He needs to propose how to split up the banks, make sure they are not too big to fail, that they are properly regulated and the retail and casino functions are split up. People's savings should not be put at risk by irresponsible banking behaviour of the kind we have seen recently. Ideally he should resist Tory urgings that the banks should be privatised straight away. Yes they should be privatised eventually when economic conditions are favourable, but not on the behest of his ideological counterparts in the Tory party. It is said that he is frustrated that he does not have the power to do what he wants and that George Osborne wields some power in all this. This is alarming if true. However even if it is true, Vince should fight his corner and go public if the Tories are being obstructive. He will surely have public opinion on his side. He may have more power than it appears on paper.
But why would the Tories do such a thing anyway? Well the Tories are the party of hedge fund managers and the money markets. Not only that, city institutions will lobby hard and they have the financial clout to do so. Making these changes will be very hard, and the Tories are not our natural allies in wanting to do this.
So there is a battle to be fought on the banking front, but we should not overlook the broader economic picture. This is a government that will make cuts right away. That in itself is a problem, as Vince Cable argued only a couple of weeks ago not to do this; "Slashing spending now could push the economy back into recession and inflict further structural damage on the UK that will make it harder to sustain our credit rating. He (George Osborne) ... fails to appreciate what the markets are looking for is a credible plan to reduce the deficit, not a willingness to slash regardless of economic conditions. In the current climate it is essential that decisions about the speed and timing of tackling the deficit are based on the state of the economy, not political dogma". See Vince Cable will be busy with his own priorities and will not get much of say in all this now.
I have asked about this on-line and got various responses. Some Lib Dems never believed what Vince Cable said at the time and thought he was just playing politics. These are often the same people who thought a the same a couple of years ago when Vince Cable was criticising the government over the high levels of debt. Look how wrong there were!
Others argue that £6billion is not very much, although I doubt it will seem that way once implemented. Some have pointed out that it depends on where the cuts are being made, and this is a more important point. Clearly cutting on national Id cards will not result in big job losses (albeit no comfort for those who do lose their jobs). Maybe it is possible to make cuts without detracting from the economic stimulus? Up to a point this is true, but can we cover all £6billion this way? Probably not. The official party response is that somewhat miraculously we do now have the growth we need to make this cuts less painful. If true this is an astonishing turn of events, coinciding very conveniently with the date of the general election. The latest growth figures do look better, but surely it is too early to say now that the time is now right? particularly given the prospects of contagion from the parlous state of the Greek economy?
The problem once again is Tory ideology. They will advocate we should cut regardless of economic conditions, as Vince Cable warned. Dangerous times.

Saturday, 15 May 2010

"Cleggmania" succeeded first of all in galvanising the electorate. But by the time they got to the polling booth their attention had switched to defeating the party they were afraid of most. Under our voting system, that meant they reverted back to "Labservative".
In addition the leadership debates brought up the issue of immigration. Whenever Cameron spoke on this, his vote went up.
And so on election day the Tories got the most votes.
A progressive coalition looked mathematically possible. But Labour tribalist MPs made that impossible.
This left 2 options; go it alone, or align with the Tories.
Go it alone was not really an option. Only the Tory party can afford to fight another election this year.
But aligning with the Tories has risks too. For many on the left, including many Lib Dems, there is the symbolism. The MPs we least want to see running the country; Osborne, Hague and Fox now have their hands on the levers of power. It becomes much harder for the Lib Dems to win votes in Labour areas from now on.
Then there is the question of what the government will now do. 2 weeks ago, the Liberal Democrats claimed that they would not support radical cuts in public spending right away, as this would induce a double dip recession. Now they are doing just that. How can this be in the national interest? There may be a good answer to this question, but I have not come across it yet.
On the other hand there is a lot that is positive about this proposed coalition. Good to see Chris Huhne tackling the issue of global warming for example. Good to see the pupil premium being implemented (although it remains to be seen if the investment will be there to make it work). Good to see civil liberties being supported. The question is whether the benefits on policy outweigh the risks from a possible recession?
The electorate gave the Lib Dems a poor hand for their negotiating position in the coalition talks. They have made the best of a bad hand, but there remains a high risk that our unforgiving voting system; whether FPTP or AV, will come down hard on them next time.
Under our voting system, you do not get many choices in politics. Left Liberals should stay in the Lib Dems and make the best of the situation as they can. It is not clear there is any other choice for the time being.

Thursday, 6 May 2010

Change the system, vote Lib Dem

I have not had the time to write about this election. However I did find the time on Facebook to suggest why not to vote Labour;
"A catastrophic war in Iraq, the never ending war in Afghanistan, failure to stand up to Israel when they invaded Gaza, collusion with torture with the Bush regime, "light touch" regulation of the City, believing that market forces were self-correcting with disastrous economic consequences, failure to reform the finance of political parties - which ... See morenow gives the Tories a massive advantage for decades to come, failure to change the electoral system after they said they would, wasted lots of money on national ID cards and their commitment to replace Trident, locking up petty criminals for short term prisons which are in effect academies of crime with a reoffending rate of 90%, a widening gap between the rich and poor, making the UK the worst in Europe, the consequences of which you can read in The Spirit Level, the Decent Homes initiative that has saddled unsuspecting leaseholders on salaries of £15K with bills from £10K to £70K, failure to introduce the traffic lights system of food health after lobbying from ex-Labour ministers, the UK massively behind Denmark in alternative energy sources, support for a new runway at Heathrow despite commitments to global warming targets ..."

In short, Labour dances to the tune of Rupert Murdoch.
Before "New Labour", the politics of the left was in many ways more liberal than it is today. There is still a hinterland on the left that supports the Liberal agenda, and although many of them would prefer to vote Labour, this time they are either voting Lib Dem or are voting tactically to keep out the Tories.
It was over 50 years ago when Liberal leader Jo Grimond talked about Liberals "realligning the left". Today we must rescue the left, but only the liberal part of it. Otherwise the onslaught from Murdoch will soon begin.