Social Liberal Forum conference: UK and Europe: Offshore island or part of the main?

Many of the problems we face today in the UK such as labour shortages or the reduction in international trade, or political turmoil in Northern Ireland can be traced to Brexit. But the only political party that wants to exploit that is the SNP. Scotland after all voted to remain in the EU and this is a useful wedge issue for them, a justification for supporting Scottish independence from the UK so that they can then apply to rejoin the EU. There is after all no other way that Scotland can realistically expect to rejoin the EU as part of the UK. Many Liberals want to rejoin the EU as well. We were after all the most pro-Remain political party at the last general election, to such an extent that we probably went too far. Voters were not impressed when during the campaign we suggested that we would simply reject the Brexit referendum vote and not even bother with a second referendum. Not surprisingly all 4 Lib Dem seats that voted for Brexit were lost (for the record; Carshalton and Wallington, Brecon and Radnor, North Norfolk and Eastbourne), despite an overall increase in the national vote. That the Lib Dems won the North Shropshire by-election last year shows that voters have, to use a fashionable phrase these days, moved on. Ed Davey may well feel vindicated, a big call he made early on in his leadership was to downplay the idea that we should rejoin the EU as soon as possible. Although that might be a smart move, he has another problem, in common with Labour also under new leadership; nobody knows what they stand for or intend to do in government. The current 12% in the opinion polls shows slow steady growth from the 6% in 2020, but there are no wedge issues that jump out that would compel people to vote for the Lib Dems. It is a return to the "none of the above" vote, which is likely to be soft, although maintainable if Johnson remains Prime Minister. I am looking forward to the SLF conference (on the Saturday after the Tiverton by-election, 25th June in London) that will be looking at the theme "UK and Europe: Offshore island or part of the main?". It would be good to see old friends again for the first time since the Covid pandemic and I have plenty of questions I would like to ask. Should the Lib Dems become a rejoin party? If the UK were to apply to rejoin, would it be able to do so on the same terms as when we left? Those terms were in fact a remarkably good deal. Would we have to sign up to the single currency? Is that a good idea? When you consider how the single interest rate ruined the Greek economy there are reasons to think it might not be. There is also the question of where ideologically the EU is going. There are 2 ways to interpret the recent French elections. The Observer journalist William Keegan claimed that the result was much better than expected and we should cammpaign hard on opposing Brexit. Others have argued that the results saw Le Pen's vote increase by 9% from 5 years ago, and if she or someone like her increases the vote by another 9% in the next elections in 5 years, they will become president. Surely if that were to happen, it will be over for the EU, at least as a liberal institution? Even without her winning Macron is having to placate some of her illiberal beliefs. Then there is the electoral impact. Many of the most deprived communities in the UK are now represented by Tory MPs. The left is losing the non-graduate working class vote. For the Liberal Democrats they have been dealt a blow in the Brexit supporting South West where the only seat they won at the last general election was prosperous pro-Remain Bath. Cornwall, Devon and Somerset became Lib Dem free zones at the last 3 general elections. The Lib Dems could make a comeback with good local organisation and campaigning on local issues as the local election results spectaculary show in Somerset recently. But it has taken this long to get there, and noone is saying much about Brexit. A compromise that I think I could support would be for the UK to rejoin the Single Market and Customs Union. I would like to think this could resolve the problems in Northern Ireland. No doubt the Unionists would complain but how can they convincingly oppose what was previously the status quo? Taking such a stance will not give Ed Davey's leadership a high profile, that remains a big problem. But for a party in government it is a more realistic option. So there is a lot to talk about, I hope to see you at the SLF conference. For more details see https://www.socialliberal.net/slfconference